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Community Corner

FASNY: ECONOMIC SENSE vs. SPIN

     In the expert report and numerous letters sent to the Common Council I have shown in various ways that the numbers quoted by the Business Council and John Ravitz are seriously in error and unreliable.    FASNY's and their Business Council shill's response has been to ignore the criticism and to repeat publicly the same errors as if they are fact.   For instance, they stated in their response to my expert report rebutting their "economic" impact analysis that they did not have to produce any statistics with their estimates because "Not Required by SEQRA Process".  
      In other words all their forecasts and dollar estimates cannot be checked or evaluated for reliability or precision.   An example. I tell you that if you invest $1 million  and you will make $100,000 in a year.  However, when you ask me how likely or probable that outcome is (e.g. +or- 5%) you instead tell me that you do not know or you do not have to tell me.   
     I am nauseated by this because all the lawyers on the common council and the mayor know that in the courtroom all of these estimates would be thrown out as "unreliable".    If the FASNY Board members (Zabotin, Bodi, etc.) investment bankers were given an investment proposal by their staff that had estimates and projections without statistical estimates of their reliability or "confidence" or probability or likelihood of outcome, these staffers would be fired on the spot.  
     In the current situation with the Common Council acting as judges or arbiters of this information, there is no accountability or even effort to assess the veracity of various FASNY economic impact claims.    If this matter goes to court, the judge will throw out all of FASNY's economic impact claims as unreliable.    I know.   I do this for a living. 
     Ravitz's claim of $40 million of new business because of FASNY's location is a discredited point estimate with no reliability.   In fact it comes from a table in an earlier DEIS based on the new FASNY people moving into White Plains that later FASNY disavowed.    
Monday night the FASNY power point had a slide with several deliberate falsehoods.  For instance, they claim again that they have studies that show homeowner property values increasing  because of a facility such as their regional school complex.    I have copies and have read these studies and as I said in writing and at the second SEQRA public hearing these studies do not support FASNY.   In fact, the one study they cite that compares golf courses to public parks estimates that houses fronting on golf courses enjoy a price premium over those fronting on parks.   Of course, any  person with a modicum of walking around experience would know this.  FASNY's experts think that we are morons.   
     I am at wit's end because FASNY can say anything they want in terms of business or economic impact, have their shills repeat it and ignore any challenges.     
Charles Diamond,  Ph.D Economics

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