First Quarter 2014 Real Estate Sales Report

2014 FIRST QUARTER RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE SALES REPORT

Westchester, Putnam, Rockland and Orange Counties, New York

The region’s surge in real estate sales since early 2013 continued stronger still in the first quarter of 2014.  Realtors participating in the Hudson Gateway Multiple Listing Service, Inc. reported a grand total of 2,552 closed residential transactions in the MLS’s core four-county service territory in January through March, an increase of 10.8% over the 2,304 closings in the same period last year. The increase from 2012 to 2013 was 8.8%, and compared to the recessionary performance of only 1,582 closings in 2009, the 2014 volume was 61.3% higher.

The first quarter closings resulted largely from properties that were listed and marketed during the late autumn and winter months of 2013.  Westchester, which accounts for about 60% of the region’s real estate sales, led the way with a powerful 19.4% sales increase in its single family house sector, and 21.0% in its cooperative unit sector.  Westchester condominium sales did not follow suit, however, declining by 15.2% from last year. 

The next highest year to year increases in residential sales were posted by Putnam  (11.9%), Rockland (7.7%) and Orange (4.2%).  In all three counties the sales gains were largely in the single family house sector.  In contrast - and as in Westchester - condominium sales were lower by about 15% in Rockland and Orange, and were unchanged in Putnam (though Putnam condo sales usually are few in number, e.g.,19 as per this report).

The robust sales levels kept the pressure on to maintain the region’s inventory which, at 10,014 listed properties2 at the end of the quarter, was 3.9% lower than last year at this time.  In the single family house sector, Orange posted the largest decrease (6.3%), followed by Westchester (3.2%), Putnam (2.6%), and Rockland (0.7%).

In a high sales rate and tight inventory environment, prices could be expected to increase-  and they did. The first quarter median1 sale price of a single family house in Westchester was $600,000, an increase of $85,000 or 16.5% over last year’s median.  Not all of the increase derived from competitive market pressure, however.  Some reflected the addition of more high end properties to the real estate market basket. Such properties (defined in this report as single family houses selling for $1,000,000 or more) constituted 23% of house sales in the first quarter of 2014, a level that was more characteristic of pre-recession markets. Last year’s first quarter ratio of high end properties was just 16%.

Rockland and Putnam exhibited the same upward price movement as Westchester, just at lower price levels.  In Rockland, the $380,000 median sale price of a single family house was 6.1% higher than last year’s $358,000.  In Putnam the increase was 11.0%, taking the median price to $318,000.  But Orange closed the quarter with further slippage in its median price for single family houses, to $219,000, down 3.1% from 2013. As previously reported by this MLS, Orange County continues to deal with a higher proportion of stressed properties in its sales mix, which brings the averages down.  However, one current positive indicator for Orange is that its first quarter mean1 sale price - $250,842- was 5.4% more than last year’s, suggesting that some more highly priced properties entered the sales mix there.

Overall, the lower Hudson region’s real estate market appears to be shedding the last of any remaining baggage from the recession that bottomed sales and prices in 2009.  With some few exceptions there is now strong pent-up demand by buyers in most parts of the region, in all price ranges, and among all residential property types. 

The larger economy is a supporting factor in our now-recovered market.  Mortgage interest rates are still very affordable at around 4.5% for a thirty year conventional loan. Unemployment throughout the region is down by one to two percentage points from a year ago.  And the equity markets including the Dow Jones have been setting new records. Real estate can thrive in that environment and based on this first quarter performance the lower Hudson market is poised to do so.

Hudson Gateway Multiple Listing Service, Inc.

The Hudson Gateway Multiple Listing Service, Inc. (HGMLS) is a subsidiary of the Hudson Gateway Association of Realtors, Inc. (HGAR). The MLS’s principal service territory consists of Westchester, Putnam, Rockland and Orange Counties. It also provides services to Realtors operating in Bronx, Dutchess, Sullivan and Ulster Counties.  The reported transactions do not include all real estate sales in the area or all sales assisted by the participating offices but they are fairly reflective of general market conditions.  HGMLS does not provide data on sub-county geographic areas. Persons desiring sub-county data are invited to contact participating real estate offices in the desired areas.  Any text or data from this report may be reprinted with attribution to Hudson Gateway Multiple Listing Service, Inc. as the source. Prior reports dating back to 1981 are available on the Realtor Association’s website, www.hgar.com; click on Market Statistics.  A membership directory searchable by municipality is also available on that site.

1 The median sale price is the mid-point of all reported sales, i.e., half of the properties sold for more than the median price and half for less.  The median is relatively unaffected by unusually low or high sale prices.  The mean sale price is the arithmetic average, i.e., the sum of all sales prices divided by the number of sales. The mean does reflect the influence of sales at unusually low or high prices.

2 Gross four-county inventory of 10,320 units adjusted downwards by 306 previously not counted multi-family units in Putnam, Rockland and Orange, for consistency of comparisons with prior quarters.

Changes to the Report

With this report the Hudson Gateway Multiple Listing Service adds new features to its quarterly market presentation and may add more as the year progresses.  In  2012 and 2013 the MLS reports were compiled from two different databases, one serving Westchester and Ptnam and one serving Rockland and Orange.  In March of 2014, those databases were merged and are now supported by a new computer system serving all four counties uniformly.  The new system and database has facilitated the following changes:

1) Condominiums and cooperatives are tracked as separate property types in all four core counties served by HGMLS. Westchester had always done this but Putnam, Rockland and Orange had compiled condominiums and cooperatives as one single property type, largely because there are so few co-ops in those counties. Counting co-ops separately may result in small numbers that sometimes generate large swings in percentage calculations, but that minor issue will be countered by improved accuracy in the important condominium sector in the region, and by uniformity of content across all four counties.

2) The Westchester section of the market report has long included 2-4 family houses, but the other three counties have not.  Starting with this report, 2-4 family house sales and price data will be presented for all four counties retroactively to 2011.  However, end-of-quarter inventory is not available retroactively to 2011 in Putnam, Rockland and Orange, thus this particular data series starts cold with this 2014 first quarter report. 

For the future, HGMLS will be considering whether to add new data to its report such as days on market or pending sales. 

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Four tables follow.

End of Report, First Quarter 2014

Hudson Gateway Multiple Listing Service, Inc.